Ensemble forecasting

Neural Network Ensemble-Based Solar Power Generation Short-Term Forecasting

This paper presents the applicability of artificial neural networks for 24 hour ahead solar power generation forecasting of a 20 kW photovoltaic system, the developed forecasting is suitable for a reliable Microgrid energy management. In total four neural networks were proposed, namely: multi-layred perceptron, radial basis function, recurrent and a neural network ensemble consisting in ensembl...

Implementation and Evaluation of a Mesoscale Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting System Over the Pacific Northwest

Implementation and Evaluation of a Mesoscale Short-range Ensemble Forecasting System over the Pacific Northwest

Uncertainty assessment via Bayesian revision of ensemble streamflow predictions in the operational river Rhine forecasting system

[1] Ensemble streamflow forecasts obtained by using hydrological models with ensemble weather products are becoming more frequent in operational flow forecasting. The uncertainty of the ensemble forecast needs to be assessed for these products to become useful in forecasting operations. A comprehensive framework for Bayesian revision has been recently developed and applied to operational flood ...

A Reliability-Based RBF Network Ensemble Model for Foreign Exchange Rates Predication

In this study, a reliability-based RBF neural network ensemble forecasting model is proposed to overcome the shortcomings of the existing neural ensemble methods and ameliorate forecasting performance. In this model, the ensemble weights are determined by the reliability measure of RBF network output. For testing purposes, we compare the new ensemble model’s performance with some existing netwo...

University of Oklahoma Graduate College Assimilation of Casa and Wsr-88d Radar Data for Tornadic Convective Storms Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter and Applications in Probabilistic Ensemble Forecasting

Using Weather Ensemble Predictions in Electricity Demand Forecasting

Weather forecasts are an important input to many electricity demand forecasting models. This study investigates the use of weather ensemble predictions in electricity demand forecasting for lead times from one to 10 days ahead. A weather ensemble prediction consists of 51 scenarios for a weather variable. We use these scenarios to produce 51 scenarios for the weather-related component of electr...